Bucky IrvingorSaquon Barkley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving outscores Saquon Barkley in 59% of simulations.
Saquon Barkley still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Bucky Irving is the better bet, not a sure thing. Bucky Irving projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bucky Irving has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (12% more than average to RBs); Saquon Barkley faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Bucky Irving wins 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bucky IrvingRB, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Saquon BarkleyRB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| PPR projection | 14.5 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | RB17 |
| Matchup | vs GB | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 72% |
| Trade value | 19 | 20 |