Caleb WilliamsorJacoby Brissett?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Jacoby Brissett in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jacoby Brissett comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jacoby Brissett has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 17.3
- Ceiling
- 29.8
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.4 | 17.9 |
| PPR projection | 18.4 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 18.3 | 17.9 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB9 |
| Matchup | at GB | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 14.8 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 16.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | — |