CeeDee LamborDerrick Henry?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Lean CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb outscores Derrick Henry in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Derrick Henry comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean CeeDee Lamb, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. CeeDee Lamb projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: CeeDee Lamb faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% fewer than average to WRs), Derrick Henry faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, CeeDee Lamb wins 60%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry is the pick at 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 29.9
- Big game (20+):
- 31%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | CeeDee LambWR, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 16.8 |
| PPR projection | 20.8 | 17.4 |
| Standard projection | 13.5 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | WR4 | RB5 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.4 | 21.8 |
| Last season per game | 12.6 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 62% |
| Trade value | 72 | 69 |