Chase BrownorZay Flowers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores Chase Brown in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Chase Brown comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Zay Flowers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Zay Flowers faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% more than average to WRs), Chase Brown faces the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 15.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 18.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | WR6 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 19.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 73% |
| Trade value | 33 | 47 |