Puka NacuaorZay Flowers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua outscores Zay Flowers in 60% of simulations.
Zay Flowers still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Puka Nacua is the better bet, not a sure thing. Puka Nacua projects 3.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (12% more than average to WRs); Puka Nacua faces the Buffalo Bills (average to WRs). Puka Nacua still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 31.2
- Big game (20+):
- 36%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 14.1
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.8 | 15.6 |
| PPR projection | 22.7 | 18.5 |
| Standard projection | 14.9 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | WR2 | WR6 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.6 | 19.4 |
| Last season per game | 19.4 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 90% | 73% |
| Trade value | 80 | 47 |