Chase BrownorChristian McCaffrey?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Chase Brown in 64% of simulations.
Chase Brown still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 2.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Chase Brown has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (18% more than average to RBs); Christian McCaffrey faces the Seattle Seahawks (15% fewer than average to RBs). Christian McCaffrey still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chase BrownRB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 17.6 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 19.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | RB4 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 16.5 |
| Last season per game | 14.6 | 21.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 74% |
| Trade value | 33 | 78 |