Chris OlaveorDerrick Henry?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Start Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Chris Olave in 55% of simulations.
Chris Olave still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Derrick Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Derrick Henry projects 2.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Chris Olave has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (13% more than average to WRs); Derrick Henry faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs). Derrick Henry still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chris Olave is the pick at 54%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry wins 67%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 16.1
- Ceiling
- 29.0
- Big game (20+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 34.6
- Big game (20+):
- 41%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris OlaveWR, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.2 | 19.5 |
| PPR projection | 21.2 | 20.1 |
| Standard projection | 13.1 | 18.8 |
| Rank this week | WR2 | RB4 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.0 | 24.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 16.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 67% |
| Trade value | 48 | 68 |