Chris Rodriguez Jr.orMichael Carter?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Michael Carter
Michael Carter outscores Chris Rodriguez Jr. in 55% of simulations.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Michael Carter is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Carter projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Michael Carter has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (4% more than average to RBs); Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Houston Texans (15% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Michael Carter wins 62%; in Standard leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 5.0
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 61%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 55%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET | Michael CarterRB, TEN, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.7 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| Rank this week | RB37 | RB33 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | — |
| Last season per game | 7.5 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 12% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |