Chris Rodriguez Jr.orTy Johnson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. outscores Ty Johnson in 62% of simulations.
Ty Johnson still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Chris Rodriguez Jr. projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Ty Johnson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (24% more than average to RBs); Chris Rodriguez Jr. faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs). Chris Rodriguez Jr. still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Chris Rodriguez Jr. wins 69%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 13.7
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 63%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Ty JohnsonRB, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.5 | 5.8 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Rank this week | RB35 | RB41 |
| Matchup | at TEN | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.5 | 5.1 |
| Last season per game | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 45% | 21% |
| Trade value | — | — |