Daniel JonesorJalen Hurts?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts outscores Daniel Jones in 57% of simulations.

Daniel Jones still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Jalen Hurts is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jalen Hurts projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Daniel Jones has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (31% more than average to QBs); Jalen Hurts faces the Los Angeles Rams (7% fewer than average to QBs). Jalen Hurts still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Daniel Jones
Floor
8.3
Median
14.9
Ceiling
24.2
Big game (25+):
9%
Dud (under 12):
31%
Jalen Hurts
Floor
9.3
Median
16.3
Ceiling
26.7
Big game (25+):
14%
Dud (under 12):
23%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDaniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ETJalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection15.817.3
PPR projection15.817.3
Standard projection15.817.3
Rank this weekQB18QB14
Matchupat WASvs LAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game9.417.8
Last season per game17.418.8
Snap share, last game100%92%
Trade value—4