Bo NixorJalen Hurts?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts outscores Bo Nix in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bo Nix comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Jalen Hurts, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jalen Hurts projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jalen Hurts faces the Los Angeles Rams (7% fewer than average to QBs), Bo Nix faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 9.3
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 26.7
- Big game (25+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 12):
- 23%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 17.3 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 17.3 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 17.3 |
| Rank this week | QB16 | QB14 |
| Matchup | at SF | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.5 | 17.8 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 18.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 92% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |