David MontgomeryorJ.K. Dobbins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins outscores David Montgomery in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: David Montgomery comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean J.K. Dobbins, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. David Montgomery projects 1.0 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: J.K. Dobbins faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to RBs), David Montgomery faces the Tennessee Titans (1% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 39%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 8.4 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | RB20 | RB24 |
| Matchup | at TEN | at LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 4.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 32% |
| Trade value | — | — |