David MontgomeryorJustice Hill?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start David Montgomery
David Montgomery outscores Justice Hill in 60% of simulations.
Justice Hill still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so David Montgomery is the better bet, not a sure thing. David Montgomery projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: David Montgomery faces the Cleveland Browns (average to RBs), Justice Hill faces the Los Angeles Chargers (5% fewer than average to RBs). David Montgomery is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | David MontgomeryRB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justice HillRB, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.1 | 6.2 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 7.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | RB32 | RB36 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs LAC |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.4 | 5.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 5.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 14% | 52% |
| Trade value | — | — |