DeVonta SmithorTetairoa McMillan?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DeVonta Smith
DeVonta Smith outscores Tetairoa McMillan in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tetairoa McMillan comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean DeVonta Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DeVonta Smith projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tetairoa McMillan has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (20% more than average to WRs); DeVonta Smith faces the Los Angeles Rams (2% more than average to WRs). DeVonta Smith still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 9.5
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 28%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tetairoa McMillanWR, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 12.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| Rank this week | WR17 | WR20 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | 14 | 3 |