George KittleorJavonte Williams?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end or running back.
Our call
Lean Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores George Kittle in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: George Kittle comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. George Kittle projects 0.6 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (18% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 12.8 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 13.9 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 11.7 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | RB12 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 15.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 14.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 76% |
| Trade value | 30 | 36 |