George KittleorJaylen Warren?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end or running back.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores George Kittle in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: George Kittle comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylen Warren projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (43% more than average to TEs); Jaylen Warren faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jaylen Warren wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (15+):
- 39%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (20+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.0 | 14.6 |
| PPR projection | 16.7 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 13.1 |
| Rank this week | TE1 | RB10 |
| Matchup | vs WAS | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.3 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 92% | 87% |
| Trade value | 24 | 44 |