Harold Fannin Jr.orJake Ferguson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Harold Fannin Jr.
Harold Fannin Jr. outscores Jake Ferguson in 57% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Harold Fannin Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Harold Fannin Jr. projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jake Ferguson has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25% more than average to TEs); Harold Fannin Jr. faces the New York Jets (average to TEs). Harold Fannin Jr. still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.9
- Ceiling
- 18.0
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 20%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.6
- Ceiling
- 17.9
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.1 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 12.4 | 11.6 |
| Standard projection | 7.9 | 7.0 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE7 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | vs TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 71% |
| Trade value | 17 | 2 |