Jacoby BrissettorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Jacoby Brissett in 56% of simulations.
Jacoby Brissett still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Jacoby Brissett has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (1% fewer than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Los Angeles Chargers (19% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.1
- Median
- 15.8
- Ceiling
- 26.6
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 17.4
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 18.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.9 | 18.1 |
| Standard projection | 16.7 | 18.1 |
| Rank this week | QB11 | QB7 |
| Matchup | at LAR | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.8 | 20.9 |
| Last season per game | 16.2 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 23 |