Javonte WilliamsorZay Flowers?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Zay Flowers in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zay Flowers projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (12% more than average to WRs); Javonte Williams faces the Houston Texans (19% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Zay Flowers is the pick at 52%; in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams wins 58%. Zay Flowers is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (20+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 6):
- 10%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (20+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.9 | 15.4 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | WR12 |
| Matchup | at HOU | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 15.2 | 18.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 33% |
| Trade value | 37 | 31 |