Jaylen WarrenorStefon Diggs?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Stefon Diggs in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Stefon Diggs comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 12.0 half-PPR points in Week 4. Stefon Diggs has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (15% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Warren faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Stefon Diggs is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Jaylen Warren wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 10.5
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Stefon DiggsWR, WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | WR14 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 12.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 90% | 59% |
| Trade value | 21 | 15 |