Jaylin NoelorKeon Coleman?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Keon Coleman
Keon Coleman outscores Jaylin Noel in 57% of simulations.
Jaylin Noel still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Keon Coleman is the better bet, not a sure thing. Keon Coleman projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Jaylin Noel has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs); Keon Coleman faces the Minnesota Vikings (22% fewer than average to WRs). Keon Coleman still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 4.5
- Ceiling
- 13.0
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 13.5
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylin NoelWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Keon ColemanWR, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.1 | 6.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.2 | 8.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | WR48 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at LAC | at MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 8.1 |
| Last season per game | 3.3 | 7.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 31% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |