Joe BurroworSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Sam Darnold in 57% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Joe Burrow is the better bet, not a sure thing. Joe Burrow projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs), Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 24.9
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.1 | 14.5 |
| PPR projection | 16.1 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.1 | 14.5 |
| Rank this week | QB18 | QB22 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.7 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |