Justin JeffersonorKeenan Allen?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson outscores Keenan Allen in 55% of simulations.
Keenan Allen still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Justin Jefferson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justin Jefferson projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Justin Jefferson faces the Miami Dolphins (9% fewer than average to WRs). Justin Jefferson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | WR22 | WR25 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 12% | 73% |
| Trade value | 11 | — |