Kaelon BlackorTy Johnson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Ty Johnson in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ty Johnson comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Kaelon Black, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Ty Johnson projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Kaelon Black faces the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs), Ty Johnson faces the New York Jets (24% more than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Ty Johnson is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 63%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Ty JohnsonRB, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| PPR projection | 5.8 | 7.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB38 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Last season per game | — | 5.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 21% |
| Trade value | — | — |