KC ConcepcionorTony Pollard?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Start Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard outscores KC Concepcion in 58% of simulations.
KC Concepcion still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Tony Pollard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tony Pollard projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. KC Concepcion has the better matchup against the Houston Texans (average to WRs); Tony Pollard faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (21% fewer than average to RBs). Tony Pollard still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Tony Pollard wins 52%; in Standard leagues, Tony Pollard wins 65%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 3.7
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 23.6
- Big game (20+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | KC ConcepcionWR, CLE, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tony PollardRB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.2 | 13.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Rank this week | WR25 | RB13 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.8 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | — | 10.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 93% | 82% |
| Trade value | 6 | 39 |