Kenneth Walker IIIorNico Collins?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Kenneth Walker III
Kenneth Walker III outscores Nico Collins in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Nico Collins comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Kenneth Walker III, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 15.2 half-PPR points in Week 4. Nico Collins has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); Kenneth Walker III faces the Las Vegas Raiders (1% fewer than average to RBs). Kenneth Walker III still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Nico Collins is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Kenneth Walker III wins 56%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 26.3
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 6):
- 8%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Nico CollinsWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| PPR projection | 16.4 | 18.0 |
| Standard projection | 14.0 | 12.3 |
| Rank this week | RB8 | WR7 |
| Matchup | at LV | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.6 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 10.4 | 12.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 73% | 72% |
| Trade value | 42 | 33 |