Keon ColemanorMike Evans?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores Keon Coleman in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keon Coleman comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mike Evans, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keon Coleman projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Keon Coleman has the better matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (1% more than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to WRs). Mike Evans still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 16.6
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 44%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 7.5
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Keon ColemanWR, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR29 | WR30 |
| Matchup | at LAR | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 78% | 59% |
| Trade value | — | 8 |