Kyle PittsorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson outscores Kyle Pitts in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyle Pitts comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean T.J. Hockenson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kyle Pitts projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. T.J. Hockenson has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (22% more than average to TEs); Kyle Pitts faces the New Orleans Saints (7% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Big game (15+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 5):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyle PittsTE, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Rank this week | TE16 | TE18 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| Last season per game | 9.8 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 59% | 85% |
| Trade value | — | — |