Pat FreiermuthorTrey McBride?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Pat Freiermuth in 65% of simulations.
Pat Freiermuth still comes out ahead in the other 35%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 2.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the Los Angeles Rams (22% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 20.8
- Big game (15+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 5):
- 9%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.5 | 12.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 8.9 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE4 |
| Matchup | at TB | at LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 90% |
| Trade value | — | 38 |