Aaron RodgersorGeno Smith?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores Geno Smith in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Geno Smith comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Aaron Rodgers, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Geno Smith projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (8% more than average to QBs); Aaron Rodgers faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs). Aaron Rodgers still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 41%
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.1 | 14.6 |
| PPR projection | 14.1 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 14.1 | 14.6 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB16 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | vs LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |