Geno SmithorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Geno Smith in 58% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (8% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Denver Broncos (11% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.0
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 25.1
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.6 | 16.0 |
| PPR projection | 14.6 | 16.0 |
| Standard projection | 14.6 | 16.0 |
| Rank this week | QB16 | QB13 |
| Matchup | vs LV | at DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.0 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |