Bam KnightorKaelon Black?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Bam Knight in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bam Knight comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Kaelon Black, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kaelon Black projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Kaelon Black has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs); Bam Knight faces the Los Angeles Rams (13% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 10.3
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 69%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 4.7
- Ceiling
- 10.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 64%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bam KnightRB, ARI, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| PPR projection | 5.9 | 5.8 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | RB40 | RB39 |
| Matchup | vs LAR | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 22% | 25% |
| Trade value | — | — |