Cam WardorMalik Willis?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Cam Ward
Cam Ward outscores Malik Willis in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Willis comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Cam Ward, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Malik Willis projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (7% more than average to QBs); Cam Ward faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to QBs). Cam Ward still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 10.9
- Ceiling
- 18.7
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cam WardQB, TEN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.7 | 11.8 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB23 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.2 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |