Kyler MurrayorMalik Willis?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Malik Willis in 64% of simulations.
Malik Willis still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Kyler Murray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Kyler Murray projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (7% more than average to QBs); Kyler Murray faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs). Kyler Murray still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.7
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 13.6 | 11.8 |
| Rank this week | QB21 | QB23 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 15.6 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |