Kirk CousinsorKyler Murray?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Kirk Cousins in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kirk Cousins comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Kyler Murray, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Kirk Cousins projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Kyler Murray faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs), Kirk Cousins faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 12.6
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 46%
- Floor
- 8.7
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 18.9
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kirk CousinsQB, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.7 | 13.6 |
| PPR projection | 13.7 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 13.7 | 13.6 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at NE | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.7 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 10.4 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |