Daniel JonesorKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones outscores Kyler Murray in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyler Murray comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Daniel Jones, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Daniel Jones projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Daniel Jones has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (31% more than average to QBs); Kyler Murray faces the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 25.5
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 26%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Daniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.7 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 16.7 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 16.7 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB17 | QB19 |
| Matchup | at WAS | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 17.4 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |