Joe BurroworKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray outscores Joe Burrow in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Joe Burrow comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Kyler Murray, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Joe Burrow projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Kyler Murray has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.1
- Ceiling
- 24.9
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.1 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 16.1 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 16.1 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB18 | QB19 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.7 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |