Carnell TateorMarvin Harrison Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Carnell Tate
Carnell Tate outscores Marvin Harrison Jr. in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Marvin Harrison Jr. comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Marvin Harrison Jr. projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Carnell Tate faces the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs), Marvin Harrison Jr. faces the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate wins 58%; in Standard leagues, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the pick at 57%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
- Floor
- 2.0
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 13.7
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Standard projection | 4.6 | 5.9 |
| Rank this week | WR48 | WR44 |
| Matchup | at BAL | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.3 | 3.1 |
| Last season per game | — | 8.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |