Derrick HenryorGeorge Kittle?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back or tight end.
Our call
Lean George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Derrick Henry in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Derrick Henry comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean George Kittle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (3% more than average to TEs); Derrick Henry faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (23% fewer than average to RBs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, George Kittle wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry is the pick at 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 19%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 22.9
- Big game (15+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| Rank this week | RB13 | TE4 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | vs LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.3 | 12.5 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 45% | 91% |
| Trade value | 36 | 27 |