Derrick HenryorPuka Nacua?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry outscores Puka Nacua in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Puka Nacua comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Derrick Henry, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Derrick Henry projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Derrick Henry faces the Tennessee Titans (average to RBs), Puka Nacua faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Puka Nacua is the pick at 56%; in Standard leagues, Derrick Henry wins 63%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 33.4
- Big game (20+):
- 38%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Derrick HenryRB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.8 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 19.3 | 20.8 |
| Standard projection | 18.2 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | RB5 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs TEN | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 24.1 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 70% |
| Trade value | 67 | 64 |