DeVonta SmithorZay Flowers?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers outscores DeVonta Smith in 55% of simulations.
DeVonta Smith still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Zay Flowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Zay Flowers projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Zay Flowers faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (7% more than average to WRs), DeVonta Smith faces the New York Giants (6% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 23.8
- Big game (20+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 24.0
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DeVonta SmithWR, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.1 | 13.1 |
| PPR projection | 15.0 | 15.9 |
| Standard projection | 9.3 | 10.4 |
| Rank this week | WR14 | WR11 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.0 | 14.6 |
| Last season per game | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 66% | 82% |
| Trade value | 20 | 27 |