DK MetcalforGarrett Wilson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson outscores DK Metcalf in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: DK Metcalf comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Garrett Wilson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Garrett Wilson projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (14% more than average to WRs); Garrett Wilson faces the Cleveland Browns (1% fewer than average to WRs). Garrett Wilson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 19.0
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 21%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (20+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.9 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| Rank this week | WR16 | WR13 |
| Matchup | vs IND | vs CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 100% |
| Trade value | 13 | 28 |