Drew LockorJoe Milton III?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Milton III
Joe Milton III outscores Drew Lock in 82% of simulations.
Drew Lock comes out ahead in the other 18%. Joe Milton III projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Joe Milton III faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to QBs), Drew Lock faces the Arizona Cardinals (18% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 1.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.3
- Ceiling
- 5.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drew LockQB, SEA, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET | Joe Milton IIIQB, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| PPR projection | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Standard projection | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Rank this week | QB26 | QB24 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | vs NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.1 | — |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | 2.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |