George KittleorJa'Marr Chase?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Ja'Marr Chase in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Ja'Marr Chase comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean George Kittle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. George Kittle projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Seattle Seahawks (1% fewer than average to TEs); Ja'Marr Chase faces the Miami Dolphins (14% fewer than average to WRs). Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.3 | 13.1 |
| PPR projection | 15.6 | 16.1 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 10.1 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | WR10 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at MIA |
| Injury | None | Questionable |
| 2026 points per game | 14.1 | 12.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 15.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 20% |
| Trade value | 44 | 54 |