George KittleorJustin Jefferson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Justin Jefferson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Jefferson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean George Kittle, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. George Kittle projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Justin Jefferson has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (7% more than average to WRs); George Kittle faces the Dallas Cowboys (8% fewer than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 20.4
- Big game (15+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 5):
- 17%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 19.3
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Justin JeffersonWR, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 8.6 |
| Rank this week | TE3 | WR18 |
| Matchup | at DAL | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 11.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 78% | 98% |
| Trade value | 29 | 13 |