Jake FergusonorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson outscores T.J. Hockenson in 61% of simulations.
T.J. Hockenson still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Jake Ferguson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jake Ferguson projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. T.J. Hockenson has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (22% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs). Jake Ferguson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 32%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 12.2
- Big game (15+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 5):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 8.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 4.7 |
| Rank this week | TE14 | TE18 |
| Matchup | at HOU | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.2 | 6.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 85% |
| Trade value | — | — |