Javonte WilliamsorTrey McBride?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or tight end.
Our call
Lean Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams outscores Trey McBride in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trey McBride comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Javonte Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trey McBride projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Trey McBride has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (41% more than average to TEs); Javonte Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% fewer than average to RBs). Javonte Williams still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Trey McBride is the pick at 57%; in Standard leagues, Javonte Williams wins 64%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (15+):
- 47%
- Dud (under 5):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.6 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.0 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 14.3 | 11.4 |
| Rank this week | RB6 | TE1 |
| Matchup | vs TB | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.6 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 97% |
| Trade value | 56 | 44 |