Jaxon Smith-NjigbaorMalik Nabers?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Malik Nabers in 71% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 6.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Arizona Cardinals (4% more than average to WRs), Malik Nabers faces the Philadelphia Eagles (6% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.6
- Median
- 20.2
- Ceiling
- 33.2
- Big game (20+):
- 51%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 21.3 | 14.6 |
| PPR projection | 25.2 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 17.4 | 11.3 |
| Rank this week | WR1 | WR5 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.5 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 17.7 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 73% |
| Trade value | 84 | 41 |