Jaylen WarrenorZay Flowers?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Zay Flowers in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zay Flowers comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylen Warren projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Zay Flowers has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (1% fewer than average to WRs); Jaylen Warren faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jaylen Warren wins 60%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.9
- Median
- 13.3
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (20+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 6):
- 11%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 24.5
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zay FlowersWR, BAL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.6 | 13.8 |
| PPR projection | 16.1 | 16.7 |
| Standard projection | 13.1 | 10.9 |
| Rank this week | RB10 | WR7 |
| Matchup | at TB | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.7 | 17.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 82% |
| Trade value | 44 | 36 |