Ashton JeantyorChristian Watson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty outscores Christian Watson in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Christian Watson comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Ashton Jeanty, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Christian Watson projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Ashton Jeanty faces the San Francisco 49ers (2% more than average to RBs), Christian Watson faces the New England Patriots (2% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 11.9
- Ceiling
- 24.8
- Big game (20+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 6):
- 17%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 24.4
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ashton JeantyRB, LV, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Christian WatsonWR, GB, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.3 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 15.4 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.3 | 11.1 |
| Rank this week | RB11 | WR9 |
| Matchup | at SF | at NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.2 | 15.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 11.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 40% | 49% |
| Trade value | 24 | 33 |